2012-09-19

Week Four FBS Preview - Guess a champion

I did some stuff on rankings last week and this week I like to give you some stuff to think about regarding the rankings.

Basically they are done (at least the two main ones) before every gameday.

So, there is a preseason ranking for week 1 and ranking for game two and so on.

This week there is the fourth edition of the ranking.

What I want you to think about is, which team on this list will be National Champion?

Because, even if all the regular conference game did not start completely, it's almost 100% sure, one team on that list will win it all.
Not a team which almost got on that list because it had a view less voting points than the team at spot #25, and for sure not a team not even getting voting points at all.

In fact it is most likely that a team within the top 10 spots will become National Champion.

Why?

History does show this: In the last 10 years, every later voted National Champion was

a) Ranked on the preseason poll
b) Ranked inside the TOP 10 in week 4, with 2 exceptions.

First exception:
In 2003 LSU and USC were voted National Champion. LSU got the Coaches votes, USC the AP-Votes.
USC was ranked #8 in preseason and #4 in week 4 (both lists), LSU was ranked #14 (AP) and #15 (Coaches) in preseason and they were ranked #12 (AP) and #11 (Coaches) in week 4.
So LSU was barely NOT in the TOP 10.

Second exception:
In 2010 Auburn won it all behind Cam Newtons magic season and basically Auburn was not ranked that high in the beginning.
They were ranked #22 (AP) and #23 (Coaches) in preseason and the got a little bit higher at week 4 with #17 (AP) and #14 (Coaches).
This is the biggest exception of all teams in the last 10 years. At least this won is easy to explain, since NOBODY had Cam Newtons outstanding performance in mind, when the season started and when they played all those tough SEC teams during later weeks, they did rise very quickly.

Of course this season could deliver another surprising performance of some team. At the moment there are four teams which were not ranked in preseason but are now on the list, Notre Dame, UCLA, Arizona and Mississippi State.
Each one has a decent shot for a surprising season, if they win. They have a shot for national championship. Losing games doesn't help in this case.

But more likely is, that a TOP 10 team will be champion, since 8,5 (remember the split 2003) of 10 champions were ranked not worse than #8 in week 4.

Looks like those coaches and those journalists do have a good hand on this, right?
A little bit, maybe, since all those teams DID win a lot of football games, but that doesn't explain it completely.

Remember the BCS-meta-list?

This is fuelled by some different polls, but one main ingredient is the coaches’ poll.
You get into the BCS National Championship Game, if you are ranked #1 or #2 at the end of the season on the BCS-standing.
You need a #1 or #2 ranking on the coaches’ poll to get into that game and this is done by humans.
If you are in preseason not ranked or ranked lower than another team which later becomes a clear contender, you are basically have a hard time to jump the ranks ahead of that team or teams, if they keep winning.

Assume you did well and have a perfect season. But a higher ranked team in preseason did also good and had also a perfect season.
Well, in this case, be sure you will NOT play in the big game, if you do not happen to be #2, because that other team is for sure ahead of you.

All I want to say with this is that the preseason ranking to align the teams and based on this list all other votes are done.
So you better be ranked ahead of those other contenders.
How do you get that?

Well, I don't have insides here, but I'm sure you have to play the whole media circus at its best to get all the attention you can get.
Because, with no attention, no ranking, for sure.

And if you are ranked and the hype is not justified later ... well, you simple drop and that's it.

And that's what happened already. Some teams already dropped out of the poll and some did rise.

So, think about the list of week 4 and try to imagine the National Champion.

Funny thing as a side note, some of those ranked teams on the list will play against each other in the upcoming weeks and most of the time; the loser eliminates himself from competition.
But sometimes this doesn't work, as seen last year, when Alabama battled LSU twice in the season (they play in the same Division).

The rankings for week 4 are:








RankTeamRecordPoints
1Alabama (58)3-01498
2LSU (2)3-01433
3Oregon3-01356
4Florida State3-01275
5Georgia3-01203
6Oklahoma2-01181
7South Carolina3-01081
8West Virginia2-01051
9Stanford3-01009
10Clemson3-0899
11Notre Dame3-0854
12Texas3-0816
13USC2-1776
14Florida3-0743
15Kansas State3-0683
16Ohio State3-0680
17TCU2-0535
18Michigan2-1448
19UCLA3-0429
20Louisville3-0366
21Michigan State2-1318
22Arizona3-0296
23Mississippi State3-0106
24Boise State2-195
25Nebraska2-180


I heard many journalists did pick Florida State as their favourite in preseason; still that team got zero first place votes in both polls.
THAT'S college football. LOL.

Here are the BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 4
Missouri @ #7 South Carolina
On paper this is a clear match.
South Carolina did play good enough to not lose its first 3 games and Missouri got its butt handed by Georgia in week 2.
The play on the Gamecocks ground, so that's it, right? The Tigers will lose and that's that.
Wrong.
First of all, South Carolina did win only against some bad teams; they barely beat Vanderbilt, which was the toughest team of those 3 teams played.
And their starting QB is basically banged up.
He will play, but with this Tigers defense, he is one hit away from being out of the game.
Mizzou is hot, they DID play good against Georgia for 3 quarters and I think Georgia is way better that South Carolina this year.
This will be a close game, I think, but I'm leaning towards and upset here.
Tigers win!

#18 Michigan @ #11 Notre Dame
This is one of the TOP 5 rivalries in College Football. Both teams know this and so they play it every year and did renew some seasons ago the commitment to play yearly for a few decades.
Last year, the Wolverine got the better of the Irish thanks to some Denard Robinson magic in the 4th quarter at Michigan in Ann Arbor.
THIS year they play at South Bend, against a better Irish team...
Well ... this game is always something special and the last time, the Irish did win both Michigan rivalries (Spartans and Wolverines) was 2004 under Tyrone Willingham.
So, I think it's time for a win here.
This game will be decides at the line of scrimmage and the Irish did look terrific last week, while the Wolverine looks bad against Alabama.
Irish win!

#15 Kansas State @ #6 Oklahoma
If this game would be at Kansas State, I would pick them.
The Wildcats do look good and they play like there is no tomorrow.
On the other hand I'm not completely sold on that Sooners team.
This game against UTEP was not a good sign.
But, since this is played IN Oklahoma, the Wildcats have to play more than 100% to upset the Sooners.
Not unlikely, but I doubt they can go over 100% for full four quarters.
Sooners win!

#10 Clemson @ #4 Florida State
This will be the first real test for the Seminoles and I think they will prevail.
As much as I like Clemson to win this, FSU will win this at home with in a close game.
The ACC Atlantic division is up for grab for FSU with this game and they will take it.
Seminoles win!

#22 Arizona @ #4 Oregon
And now, a big welcome to the fun game of the week.
Rich Rodriguez Wildcats against the Kelly Ducks.
Fast paces offenses against each other.
Should be fun to watch.
The play in Oregon, so combined with a team in rebuilding mode (Arizonas first season under Rich Rodriguez) this should be a clear Ducks win.
The only question will be, which Ducks dress will we see?
Maybe the Ninja Ducks dress? LOL.
Ducks win!

‘Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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